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Canada Goose is surging after opening its first store in China (GOOS)

Monday December 31 st 2018

People line up to enter a Canada Goose flagship store at Sanlitun on December 30, 2018 in Beijing, China. Canada Goose opened its first flagship store in Beijing on Sunday.

Canada Goose surged 6% Monday, to more than $44.30 a share, after the winter-clothing manufacturer opened its first mainland China store in downtown Beijing.

The debut came amid tensions between Canada and China related to the arrest of a top Chinese executive, Meng Wanzhou, in Vancouver earlier this month. 

Read more: Canada Goose’s first China store draws eager crowds despite diplomatic headwinds

The Beijing store’s debut was delayed two weeks, Reuters reported, though the company made “no connection” to the heightened tensions between the two countries. Canada Goose reportedly said earlier this month the postponement was due to construction work.

Earlier this year, Canada Goose said it was planning a long-term growth strategy in the Greater China area, including launching a direct-to-consumer business and opening stores in Beijing and Hong Kong.

Toronto-based Canada Goose debuted on both the New York Stock Exchange and the Toronto Stock Exchange in March of 2017. Shares soared on the first day of trading and have rallied nearly 173% since. Still, the stock is down 39% from its mid-November all-time high of $72.27

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Canada Goose shares.Markets Insider

European Markets Finish Mostly Higher In Thin Holiday Trade

(RTTNews) – The majority of the European markets ended Monday’s session in the green. A number of markets, including those in German, Switzerland and the Nordic countries, were closed on New Year’s Eve. The remaining markets closed their doors early ahead of tomorrow’s New Year’s Day holiday.

The gains were fueled by optimism about a potential U.S.-China trade deal following comments from President Donald Trump.

In a post on Twitter on Saturday, Trump he had a “long and very good” telephone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

“Deal is moving along very well,” Trump tweeted. “If made, it will be very comprehensive, covering all subjects, areas and points of dispute. Big progress being made!”

The pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 index advanced 0.47 percent. The Euro Stoxx 50 index of eurozone bluechip stocks increased 0.50 percent, while the Stoxx Europe 50 index, which includes some major U.K. companies, added 0.29 percent.

The DAX of Germany was closed and the CAC of France rose 1.11 percent. The FTSE 100 of the U.K. declined 0.09 percent and the SMI of Switzerland was closed.

In London, Oilex jumped 8.28 percent after it received approximately US$290,000 in cash call proceeds relating to its Cambay joint venture with the Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation.

AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V. rallied 3.0 percent in Amsterdam after it appointed Guido Löber as Chairman of the Management Board of AMG Technologies.

The manufacturing sector in China fell into contraction in December, the latest survey from the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday with a PMI score of 49.4. That’s down from the no-change mark 50.0 in November, falling beneath that mark and into contraction. A score above 50 signals expansion.

Greece retail sales in October fell at the fastest pace since the middle of 2016, figures from the Hellenic Statistical Authority showed on Monday.

Retail turnover fell 2.2 percent year-on-year in October, after a rise of 4.5 percent in September. The volume of retail sales dropped 4 percent.

Sales decreased for the first time since February and at the fastest pace since August 2016, when sales fell 2.6 percent.

The global economy is ‘already on an irreversible path’ to a downturn, Nomura says

Sunday December 30 th 2018

Diagram of a credit cycle.Nomura

  • In the life of a decade-long credit cycle, the global economy’s current condition shows it’s firmly heading toward a downturn, according to a new analysis from Nomura.
  • A single cycle is historically a decade long. The beginning is marked by the end of a crisis/a cyclical bottom, and ends when credit contracts and the economy enters into a recession.
  • The global economy today is within what Nomura calls the “credit expansion/last stage,” heading toward a plateau and then a downturn.

One Wall Street strategist warns the end of the global economy’s current cycle is near. 

In fact, the path to a downturn is “irreversible,” according to Naka Matsuzawa, chief Japan rates strategist at Nomura.

“The global economy is already on an irreversible path to an economic downturn,” he wrote, in a sweeping report, translated to English from Japanese, about his macro investment strategies for 2019.

“However, we do not expect the economy to fall suddenly into a downturn, but to recover temporarily in the second half of 2019 to the first half of 2020 after signs of a slowdown strengthen through the first half of 2019.” 

Matsuzawa’s view is more or less consistent with other experts. Some market strategists and business leaders are not calling for an immediate recession, but think that sometime in 2020 the risks will rise. A recent report from Deutsche Bank placed the likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months as “very low.” Still, economists are keeping an eye on the flattening Treasury yield curve, wherein an inversion traditionally indicates a recession on the horizon — with a mixed track record of reliability. 

Nomura defines the lifetime of a credit cycle as a decade-long process beginning with the end of a prior financial crisis and a cyclical bottom that ends when credit contracts and the economy enters into a recession. 

As shown in the report’s intricate chart above, the global economy today is within the range of what Nomura calls the “credit expansion/last stage,” just starting to plateau before it rolls over.

Read more: A critical corner of the stock market is reflecting fears that the economy is slowing down

The most recent expansion in the US began in June 2009, Nomura writes at the start of the chart, and entered into its “credit expansion/middle stage” in December 2015 — when the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates for the first time since the financial crisis.

That marked the “Fed liftoff,” or “second wave” of the middle stage, and launched the US economy into its last stage where investors are seeing a sharp downturn in stocks and the Federal Reserve pulling back from its “quantitative tightening” program.

“We think the real economy will enter a downturn from the second half of 2020, and expect the financial markets to price in this economic downturn in the first half of 2020,” Matsuzawa wrote.  “The immediate cause could be a global credit crunch caused by a sharp drop in the credit market, including the US corporate bond market.” 

He added: “But at this point we expect the triggers to be 1) the US’s return to a hawkish approach on Chinese policy and full-scale weak USD measures, 2) further declines in crude oil prices and an increase in bankruptcies among US energy companies, and 3) a demand-side shock that prevents an upturn in the semiconductor cycle.”

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Volatility made a big comeback in 2018 — these were the stock market’s 5 craziest days of the year

Saturday December 29 th 2018

The SP 500's five largest intraday changes in 2018.Samantha Lee/Markets Insider

  • This year was defined by outsized swings in equity markets. 
  • “Last year was such a historically dull year, it feels worse for most investors,” one market strategist said of the ups and downs in 2018.
  • Still, this year was just the most volatile since 2015, when measuring intraday changes of 1% or more on the SP 500.

If 2018 felt like the year volatility returned to the stock market, that’s because it was.

Rising interest rates in the US, an ongoing trade war between the world’s two largest economies, concerns over slowing global growth, and the Trump administration’s own unrest whipped stocks around for months. The injection of volatility came after two years that featured quiet intraday moves and a record-low reading on the stock market’s fear gauge, or the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX).

To be sure, 2018 was merely the most volatile year — measured by intraday moves of 1% or more — since 2015. That year, the SP 500 recorded 72 intraday such moves. This year has seen 64, through Friday. That compares with 48 in 2016, and just eight in 2017.

The last few months, specifically, has been a rude awakening for the bulls. The SP 500 fell 6.94% in October, narrowly escaping its worst month since the financial crisis. And its December performance was even worse. Its currently on track for its worst final month of the year since the Great Depression, with a loss of nearly 10%. Here are the major averages’ peaks, and their performances since then.

But volatility means big price swings in both directions, which has been evident this month. Stocks soared earlier in December after the US and China agreed to delay further trade-war escalations by 90 days. And just this week, major US averages staged a massive comeback on Thursday, wiping out what would’ve been some of their biggest losses of the year.

“Although by some measures this year is quite volatile, it really is a normal year in many other ways,” Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial, said in an email to Business Insider. “Last year was such a historically dull year, it feels worse for most investors.” 

Here were the five most volatile days of the year for the SP 500, ranked by their largest intraday moves. 

1. December 26, 2018

Session low: 2,346.58

Session high: 2,467.76

Intraday range: 5.16%

One of the final trading weeks of the year featured historically huge swings in both directions. The SP 500 posted its largest single-day move since August 2011 and its largest single-day rally since 2008, according to Wells Fargo. The Dow, for its part, posted its largest one-day point rally in history.

2. February 5, 2018

Session low: 2,638.17

Session high: 2,763.39

Intraday range: 4.75%

Stocks in the US plunged at the start of a wild week as a confluence of factors like fear over rising interest rates stoked panic and took down equities. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also saw its largest one-day point decline in history (a loss of 1,175.21 points). The SP 500 closed lower by 4.1%.

3. February 9, 2018

Session low: 2,532.69

Session high: 2,638.67

Intraday range: 4.18%

Friday finally arrived after a crazy week. Some of the blame for the week’s big swings were pinned on fears of rising interest rates eating into corporate profits. The SP 500 closed up 1.5% for the session. 

4. February 6, 2018

Session low: 2,593.07

Session high: 2,701.04

Intraday range: 4.16%

The Cboe Volatility Index, reflecting the SP 500′s implied volatility, leapt to a staggering 50, its highest level since mid-2015. Still, the SP 500 closed higher by 1.7%. 

5. February 8, 2018

Session low: 2,580.56

Session high: 2,685.27

Intraday range: 4.06%

The week’s carnage raged on. The SP 500 closed lower by nearly 4%, entering into a correction — down at least 10% from its peak.

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Alcoa Schedules Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2018 Earnings Release and Conference Call

Thursday December 27 th 2018



Alcoa Corporation (NYSE:AA) plans to announce its fourth quarter and
full-year 2018 financial results on Wednesday, January 16, 2019 after
the close of trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

The press release with financial results, and a related presentation,
will be available on the “Investorsâ€� section of Alcoa’s website,
A link to the press release will also be on Alcoa’s twitter handle
@Alcoa at

A conference call to discuss the financial results will begin at 5:00
p.m. EST on Wednesday, January 16, 2019 and will be webcast live via
Alcoa’s website,

Conference Call Information



5:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m. EST



Roy Harvey, President and Chief Executive Officer

William Oplinger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial



+1 (877) 883-0383 (Domestic)

+1 (412) 902-6506 (International)

Conference ID: 1509840

To avoid a delay in start time, please dial-in beginning at 4:45 p.m.



Go to “Investorsâ€� section of the Alcoa
website to listen only and view slides.



Note: Adobe Flash 9 or higher is required. Please refer to the system
check to verify that your computer meets the system requirements.
Click here
if you need the latest version of Adobe Flash.

Replay Information

A telephone replay of the call will be available at approximately 8:00
p.m. EST on January 16 until January 23, 2019.

Dissemination of Company Information

Alcoa Corporation intends to make future announcements regarding company
developments and financial performance through its website at

About Alcoa

Alcoa is a global industry leader in bauxite, alumina and aluminum
products, built on a foundation of strong values and operating
excellence dating back 130 years to the world-changing discovery that
made aluminum an affordable and vital part of modern life. Since
developing the aluminum industry, and throughout our history, our
talented Alcoans have followed on with breakthrough innovations and best
practices that have led to efficiency, safety, sustainability and
stronger communities wherever we operate. Visit us online on,
follow @Alcoa on Twitter and on Facebook at